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Sunday, December 18, 2005

Bruce Perens' 2006 Forecasts

Bruce Perens makes a set of forecast for 2006. With increase interest in opesnource showing up and with developments like this taking place - it is certainy worth watching what Bruce perens has to say - with my comments added.

1. Java begins its decline as an Enterprise Platform : As he sees it,Java falls flat in one critical area: time-to market. Upstart web platforms like Ruby on Rails have shown that you can use your development time – resulting in scalabilty - add cheap hardware instead of expensive time. (My View : Nope .. I do not see an easy switch from Java to a new platform happening in 2006 in the enterprise space - switching costs and associated change management could be minboggling)
2. Native Linux APIs gain ground as a Cellular Applications Platform
Java's also the Cell phone industry's answer to portability, but not to performance. The advent of Linux and Open Source GUIs in feature phones, and standardization projects like those run by OSDL and Free Standards Group, will begin to be noted in 2006 (My view : I do not see this to happen wholesome but in a very limited way could happen)
3. Cellular Carriers are Just Carriers : Like ISP’s tried in the early days to provide content and failed ,cellular carriers dream of value-added content, served through feature phones, as a revenue enhancer may also meet the same fate. Content will always come from content experts/general media. (My view : Fully agree)
4. Trouble ahead for PHP :PHP has become the BASIC of web application design, used primarily by designers without too much computer science background. The platform hasn't taken well to multiprocessing, and is doing poorly enough from a security standpoint While organizations invested in PHP will band-aid their existing code, new projects will move to other platforms, with designers more cognizant of both software engineering and application security. (My view : Partially agree). Read his full post to look at his other predictions.Honestly I expected much more strong views from Bruce

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Sadagopan's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Trends,Thoughts, Ideas & Cyberworld
"All views expressed are my personal views are not related in any way to my employer"