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Thursday, August 02, 2007

The Myths About Impending Bubble

John Dvorak writes about Bubble 2.0. To me his perspective looks shallow. Growth won’t be linear everytime and it is sees growth and adoption takes a journey similar to the S –Curve. In such a scenario amidst, failed realization, comes out a few shining success stories.
As I see it, the industry is stabilizing and maturing and resource allocation is getting done with more sound reasoning. Technology continues to evolve and angel and VC investments may not be fully rational(that’s the way these have got to be). There would be some failures but not enough to paint the doomsday for the the industry with a broad brush. Look at this carefully : The previous dot com bubble has very little to do with disappearing markets or businesses going bankrupt. The bubble was all about people that would blindly invest in internet stocks and businesses. After awhile when the overvalued internet companies started to fail, and all that stock was worthless, it caused a huge impact on the economy. Today people are more judicious in their choice of investments and seldom chase unproven web businesses.
We still have that WWW rush as we see more and more services move to the web and the first adopters start to mature - see Wikipedia and Google Maps as second generation web services versus movie rentals like Netflicks, which are a relatively new experiment. The money, on the other hand, is there but everyone is considerably more controlled about their investments. Today investors definitely seek a solid business model or more likely a working implementation first, before large swathe of funds get allocated. All the net majors today are following this – starting from Google, MySpace to Facebook.

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