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Thursday, January 18, 2007

Art Laffer Speak

Arthur Laffer, known for his Laffer Curve is always interesting to read when he talks about a range of issues:
Art Laffer expects oil price to fall down below US$35(oil just dropped under 50$ levels yesterday),in the next two years and has interesting views on a variety of topics – he thinks SOX is good for the business, he expects the dollar to get stronger, less bullish on china & india - contrarian to the core. Mark Skousen the interviewer notes that he’s also known as a brilliant money manager and economic forecaster, and since 2000, his Macro 100 stock portfolio is 48 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 Index.
MS: Are you still bullish on China and India like most analysts?
AL: Yes, but not as much as I used to be. I was bullish on Japan a year ago, but not so much now. We look at every country’s monetary policy, tax policy, etc.
MS: Do you envision the dollar crashing?
AL: No! It’s going to rise. When oil prices decline, the trade deficit – what I call the capital surplus – is going to come way down. These are all cases of a reversal to the mean.
MS: Aren’t you worried by the regulatory stranglehold of Sarbanes Oxley?
AL: I think Sarbanes Oxley is great! Yeah, it’s added a layer of regulation that has hurt small business, but I’m on a lot of company boards, and a lot of companies have found Sarbox to be highly beneficial because they’ve learned a lot more about their companies, the good and the bad.
MS: Are you concerned at all about worldwide terrorism and the war in the Middle East?
AL: I really don’t see much of a problem. I think the Middle East is terrible, but it’s always been terrible. Iran and Iraq need the oil money badly, but when the oil price drops sharply, as it will, it will be the best foreign policy we ever had, and we’ll get rid of those tyrants in Iran and Venezuela. Sure, terrorism is a problem, but I lived through an era in the 1950s and 1960s under the fear of Soviet attack, and that was much more scary.

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"All views expressed are my personal views are not related in any way to my employer"