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Friday, January 20, 2006

McKinsey's Ten Year Trends

McKinsey comes out with a list of well thought out trends. Look at some of the statistics shown here :

- Probability that a company in an industry's top revenue quartile will not be there in five years: 30 percent.(Technology) - Multiple by which e-mail traffic has grown from 1997 to 2005: 215 (Technology/Social Phenomenon)
- Computational capability of an Intel processor, as measured in instructions per second (Technology)
- 1971: 60,000
- 2005: 10,800,000,000
- Increase in tax burden needed to maintain current benefit levels for Japan's future generation: 175% (Demographics)

Calling those who say that business success is all about execution are wrong. Ian Davis & Elizabeth Stephenson state that the right product markets, technology, and geography are critical components of long-term economic performance. By taking an analytic, historical and holistic approach, long-term trends can be extrapolated with reasonable confidence. Mckinsey believes that ten trends—macroeconomic, social and environmental, and business and corporate—will shape the global business landscape in the coming ten years. Companies need to understand the implications of these trends alongside customer needs and competitive developments. Executives who align their company's strategy with these factors will be the best placed to succeed. Reflecting on these trends will be time well spent.

The profound changes that are sweeping us are really minboggling. Look at this : More than two billion people now use cell phones. We send nine trillion e-mails a year. We do a billion Google searches a day, more than half in languages other than English

1. Centers of economic activity will shift profoundly, not just globally, but also regionally. As a consequence of economic liberalization, technological advances, capital market developments, and demographic shifts, the world has embarked on a massive realignment of economic activity. The United States will still account for the largest share of absolute economic growth in the next two decades.

2. Its not only three billion capitalists entering the flat world, but almost a billion new consumers will enter the global marketplace in the next decade as economic growth in emerging markets pushes them beyond the threshold level of $5,000 in annual household income. 33 million university-educated young professionals in developing countries is more than double the number in developed ones.

3. Innovation in technology, regulation, and the use of resources will be central to creating a world that can both drive robust economic growth and sustain environmental demands. Read the full article here - one shall feel much more wiser after reading this well compiled list.

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Sadagopan's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Trends,Thoughts, Ideas & Cyberworld
"All views expressed are my personal views are not related in any way to my employer"