The Internet Explosion & Changing Dynamics

Ten years ago, the net was mostly used by geeks; now it's the default way to do business in many countries. Some time in 2005, a dramatic milestone was reached in Internet history: the one-billionth user went online. Because we have no central register of Internet users, we don't know who that user was, or when he or she first logged on. Statistically, we're likely talking about a 24-year-old woman in Shanghai. Morgan Stanley estimates, 36% of Internet users are now in Asia and 24% are in Europe. Only 23% of users are in North America. Om Malik was amongst the first to talk about this. Jakob Nielson points out that it took 36 years for the Internet to get its first billion users. The second billion will probably be added by 2015; most of these new users will be in Asia (The clickz report finds that this can happen much earlier – it talks about adding another 750 million people by 2101). The third billion will be harder, and might not be reached until 2040. Jakob predicts that e-commerce sales will at least double from their current level when more of the current billion users start shopping online. We previously noted that online monetization continues to rise. Jakob Nielson highlights some key things to note amidst this growth: The billion-user Internet is a highly diverse environment that has moved far beyond the elite in Silicon Valley and other global technology hubs. There are hundreds of millions of old people online, and there are even more users without fancy graduate degrees. The difference between elite and mainstream users is getting bigger every day. In another ten years, Americans will be less than 15% of Internet users and will likely account for about one-third its value (Americans typically spend more than other users). The fact that two-thirds of Internet revenues will come from other countries highlights the growing importance of global reach of the internet.Putting aside the details of how to make the multi-billion-user Web work, the very fact that it's realistic to expect a second billion users points to interactive media's compelling value. People all over the world are experiencing unprecedented levels of empowerment: being able to do things is why the Web has grown so fast, and will continue to grow for years to come.