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Friday, November 04, 2005

Michael Malone On Forbes Story & Blogsphere Potential

Michael Malone writing on the forbes fumble points out that that there are an estimated 20 million bloggers out there. And counting for drop puts in the long run there may be 200,000 serious bloggers out there, scattered throughout the world. That's 200,000 entrepreneurial startups, 50 times that of the number of new dot-coms a decade ago and argues that this is more than enough critical mass to kick off a boom. He explains that while it could be the case that most of these bloggers aren't making much money- they don't have much overhead either - and they are slowly groping their way toward workable revenue models (I would like to add here for some blog presence may not be aimed at direct personal benefit - say a CEO blogging). He expects that once they do, the venture capital industry is ready to swoop in. With the Huffington Post and the soon-to-be-announced Pajamas Media, we are also seeing the birth of the first larger business structures in the blogosphere - and the first serious interest by major advertisers. That will be the key: when General Motors takes out an ad on Instapundit, the blogosphere will ignite so fast that it will make the dot-com buildup seem like slow motion.
He points out how Forbes repeatedly misses out on the tech thing, going as far to call it one of the best technology counter-indicators
. Malone foresees that five years from now, the blogosphere will have developed into a powerful economic engine that has all but driven newspapers into oblivion, has morphed (thanks to cell phone cameras) into a video medium that challenges television news, and has created a whole new group of major companies and media superstars. Billions of dollars will be made by those prescient enough to either get on board or invest in these companies. At this point, the industry will then undergo its first shakeout, with the loss of perhaps several million blogs - though the overall industry will continue to grow at a steady pace.

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