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Saturday, August 13, 2005

Chindia - The Rise Of China & India

Businessweek has a series of articles in its latest issue about the rise of China & India. For the international observers quaestions that come to mind include : The next superpowers? Societies on the brink of chaos? The countries that will take all the US jobs? and the clear answer is since India and China have one-third of the world's people, almost anything you say about them will be partly right. Bweek envisions China, India, and the U.S. evolving into a global triumvirate that will dominate the century. China and India will be both allies and counterweights to America - at the expense of Japan and Europe. China's competitive edge is shifting from low-cost workers to state-of-the-art manufacturing. India is creating world-class innovation hubs, and its companies are far better performers than China's. And a market-driven "Chindia" is fast emerging.

The rise of China and India will be better for the U.S. than the direst predictions hold - yet worse than the Panglossian projections of boosters in America and Asia. On the upside, American consumers will clearly benefit from the availability of inexpensive goods and services. American shareholders of well-positioned multinationals will enjoy higher profits. And Americans employed in successful U.S. export sectors will benefit because China and India will buy more Western-style goods and services - from cosmetics to jets to banking - as they get richer and increase their consumption. On the downside, life will be tough for those who are less skilled, less educated, and less able to adapt as the world changes around them. Even many highly skilled American service workers, from programmers to financial analysts, will suffer as low-cost Asian giants target U.S.-dominated businesses. "The individuals who are able to take advantage of the new opportunities do extremely well. Those who are poorly situated get hammered
In coming years, India and China will consume more goods and services from the U.S. and elsewhere - both because they will be richer and because they will shift somewhat from export-led growth toward meeting serious domestic needs. In China, the shift will mean more money for health care, housing, and the environment, and less for steel and chemical plants. China's health-care spending per dollar of GDP is only one-third that of the U.S., so there's lots of room for improvement. India, too, will divert more of its newfound wealth toward uplifting its poor. This will create opportunities to sell American products and services. Many Indians and Chinese are more confident about Americans' future than Americans are themselves. John Seely Brown & John Hagel are both struck by how complacent U.S. business executives are regarding the business implications of offshoring. They write that it is in sharp contrast to the intense urgency seen while talking to executives in China and India. Complacency has always been risky and it is even more so today. By focusing on innovation rather than brawn, and ensuring labor and regulatory conditions are attractive...the U.S. will continue to attract and retain the best and brightest

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Sadagopan's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Trends,Thoughts, Ideas & Cyberworld
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