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Wednesday, November 03, 2004Via Informationweek)Bill Gates writes that his optimism for the future of computing has never been greater. Excerpts from a well written article.
We've gone from standalone mainframes to hundreds of millions of incredibly powerful PCs and smart devices. The spirit of Moore's Law has taken processing power from kilohertz to gigahertz, storage from kilobytes to terabytes, and networking speed from mere bits per second to gigabits per second. Computers have moved out of the IT department into almost every part of our lives. More than 600 million PCs are in use today, a number that will rise to more than a billion in the next five years. Many devices we use every day--from mobile phones to TVs--are becoming like computers, with processing power, storage, and connectivity that meets or even beats the high-end PCs of just a few years ago.Yet we're only beginning to realize computing's potential. I believe that we're entering an era when software will fundamentally transform almost everything we do. The continued growth of processing power, storage, networking, and graphics is making it possible to create almost any device imaginable. But it's the magic of software that will connect these devices into a seamless whole, making them an indispensable part of our everyday lives.
In the workplace, we're already moving from personally focused software, such as word processors and spreadsheets, to truly collaborative tools that bring teams together and drive a quantum leap in business productivity. Today's productivity software does a good job helping people collaborate, with shared workspaces and management software that helps teams and projects work efficiently. But a coming generation of software will take collaboration a step further, capturing the knowledge and experience of an entire organization, enabling individuals and teams to draw on that information to make better, more strategic decisions.
In the back office, software standards are driving a more model-based approach to developing applications. With the growth of XML and Web services, we're getting closer to being able to visualize any kind of business process and quickly develop software that can adapt to companies' changing needs. For example, today when a firm makes an acquisition or changes a key business process, the IT department often must embark on the time-consuming and expensive task of rewriting and testing the underlying software. But as we move toward a world of rich Web services and development tools that instinctively understand business processes, businesses can simply make the changes they want and the code will take care of itself.
Computing also is extending further into the physical world, with emerging technologies such as RFID tags and a growing number of embedded devices and sensors. This means that software can go places it has never gone before--tracking inventory from the factory floor to the cash register and beyond to watching your home for intruders or keeping tabs on what's in your refrigerator.Another field poised for a wave of innovation is natural interfaces. We're making breakthroughs that take us close to the longtime vision of computers that can speak, listen, and learn. Accurate handwriting recognition is a reality with Tablet PCs, but we're continuing to make advances that make digital ink more natural, adaptive, and personalized. Simple speech recognition is commonplace in some specialized applications, such as customer service, but advances are rapidly taking us to a world where any device will be able to understand spoken commands.
As computers become increasingly "aware" of their users, they can adapt their behavior accordingly: for instance, sounding audible alerts rather than displaying dialog boxes when the user isn't looking at the screen. Meanwhile, inexpensive cameras and powerful software are spawning videoconferencing tools that offer users a greater sense of presence and more dynamic collaboration, as well as the ability to review and annotate meetings in real time. Just as software has driven the past 25 years of innovation, it will be the key to enabling another quarter-century of breakthroughs--and in the process, transforming how people live, work, learn, and are entertained.
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