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Saturday, November 13, 2004Churchill Club last week organised the 7th Annual top ten technology trends This is one of the most important events predicting the tehcnology trends for the next 2-3 years. Excerpts:
John Doerr, Partner, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers; Esther Dyson, Editor At Large, CNET Networks; Roger McNamee, Co-Founder & Managing Director, Silver Lake Partners & Integral Capital Partners; Joe Schoendorf, Partner, Accel Partners
Moderator: Tony Perkins, Creator & Editor-in-Chief, AlwaysOn
1. The NextWeb. Ten years after the first web browser we’re witnessing incredible innovation and systemic rethinking/reinvention in important web services, e.g. google/search, commerce, personalization, even browsers. Has the internet been underhyped? (John)
2. The Personal Electronic Health Record will be a big deal, and a lot of business will coalesce around it. It will foment new apps for data-sharing and protection, domain-specific health-oriented search and the like. (Esther)
3. Enterprise. There will no major waves of enterprise technology spending equivalent to Windows (early 90s), ERP (mid-90s) or Y2K (late 90s) for at least five years. - The focus of enterprise technology spending over the next few years will be on operating cost savings, not competitive advantage - one of the biggest opportunities for near term cost savings will be technology spending itself (Roger)
4. China: The Next Global Innovation Leader. We tend to look at China today the same way we did Japan in the 50's 60's and early 70's - a great source of low cost labor. China, even more so than Japan is poised to become a global leader in inventing the next big thing. Why, what, when??? (Joe)
5. Mainstream media & entertainment will relent to the Open Source Media Revolution, and allow more online content participation (e.g. Blogging, uploading of music and video) and greater transparency and collaboration of members (i.e. online social networking). This will provide a mini-boom for new content creators and blogging and social networking tools and application developers. (Tony)
6. Stem Cells Rock. (and divide, and differentiate). California will lead the world with research into embryonic stem cells, eventually leading to new therapies for many diseases. We’ll learn the intricate networks and signaling involved in hundreds of cell types, with breakthroughs through exquisite drug intervention and cellular therapies for intractable diseases. (John)
7. Cell-Phone Text Messaging. Americans will start to use cell-phone text messaging for a variety of tasks, and vendors/service providers will jump into the game, for everything from personalized marketing to drug compliance ("did you remember to take your pill at 7 pm?") (Esther)
8. Consumer technology (and content) that targets people over 30 will be more successful than products targeting younger people. (Roger)
9. Digital Living. Everything you own at home is obsolete. Throw it all out. TV'S, Stereos, CD's, DVD and all your cables. Store content once - use anywhere. (Joe)
10. A cultural move to the IT as a “utility” model (e.g. NetSuite, Salesforce, Sun’s new push to run your server room) in computing which will help keep the IT business growing overall. This trend will be driven by the continued virtualization of the workforce; where workers require web access to all business processes from anywhere at anytime, and the cost savings value of this kind of arrangement. (Tony)
Matt Marshall covering this event writes,Schoendorf stole the show. He's a zealot, for China. Japan, he said, may have reinvented manufacturing and emerged dominant in the automobile and electronics industries in the early 1980s. But China will pose the greatest challenge yet to America's standard of living. This is more than just the transfer of Silicon Valley technology to China's own huge internal market. China will emerge as an innovator in its own right. "China is poised to become a global leader in inventing the next big thing."
Here are Schoendorf's other points:
--First, plain hard work. Take Huawei, the Chinese network communications company. It has two groups of engineers, each working 13-hour shifts, so development continues around the clock. Schoendorf says: "They have a work ethic that may even shame our own."
--Second, pride. Masses of Chinese obtaining electrical engineering degrees here are heading back to China to do their part in the national revival. McNamee interrupted to agree, saying the Patriot Act had accelerated the trend by making it harder for foreigners to stay in the U.S. He called China "a pure negative sum" equation for the U.S. Schoendorf, however, took issue with McNamee's suggestion that Chinese were getting forced to go back. "They went home voluntarily...because the opportunity was there."
--Third, a tech-hungry population and largest market in the world. China has a market of over 300 million cellphones, more than the number of people living in the U.S., and it's growing. The surge in instant messaging and other services that come with such usage is pushing the Chinese to innovate and to set standards that the world will have to follow. Cellphones are just the beginning.
--Stem-cells. This was a trend cited by John Doerr. But China, again, is looming, according to Schoendorf. This is among the most complex areas of work the world has ever taken on, Schoendorf said. California is slated to lead in this space. Where does China fit in? Well, Schoendorf warned that the leading work is being done today in China. Matt concludes by saying, We looked through our notebook of last night's hour-and-a-half debate for a mention of India. Didn't find a single reference. Perhaps those in attendance will correct me. Just saying
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