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Tuesday, May 25, 2004

Fail to heed the cheap revolution and it will kill you via Forbes

The Cheap Revolution is with us and will not go away. It is the primary source of confusion in the stock markets and economies during these turbulent 2000s, though it shouldn't be.Try selling a server for $30,000 at a time when Dell sells a pair for $5,000 and you're toast. Ask Sun Microsystems about it. Sun has suffered declining revenue for 12 consecutive quarters.there's a good chance these nervous folks work for companies like Sun or are themselves poorly positioned for the future. Thirty million American jobs could disappear over the next ten years. A few million will be offshored to cheap countries. Greater millions will vanish into software--"exported to the land of productivity," as U.S. Chamber of Commerce head Tom Donohue recently told me. One must have faith, of course. History says better and more creative jobs will follow. They always have and always will. Most of the new jobs will be found at younger companies like Google that are positioned on the right side of the Cheap Revolution divide.The Cheap Revolution has boosted manufacturing productivity, remade the IT business and is bringing merry creative destruction to telecom. It has yet to touch some industries, notably education and health care. Therein lies opportunity.

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