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Thursday, January 22, 2004A very important phenomenon - this could potentially change the global competitive scenario Several friends tell me that more and more Europe looks like a pensioner's paradise. The much talked about BRIC report heavily factors in the demographic pattern contributing to the ascendancy of Brazil, Russia, India and China becoming economic big powers amongst several other factors. Some of the points raised in the Businessweek article include:
• In Italy, where the total national debt is already more than 105% of GDP, retirees will outnumber active workers by 2030.
• Japan would have to increase immigration elevenfold from its current level to make up for the nation's low fertility rate and rapid decline in its working population.
• And assuming current demographic and economic trends continue, the European Union's share of total global output will shrink from 18% today to 10% in 2050. Japan's share would decline from 8% to 4%.
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