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Monday, December 20, 2004Roland Piquepaille ), Helene Zampetakis, writing in MISweb asserts than in 10 to 15 years, we'll be unable to use today's technologies to build electronic devices always smaller and more powerful. Instead, three disruptive technologies will converge and deeply change our lives: nanotechnology, sensors and wireless technology. The article explains how this will influence molecular computing or quantum information processing and also describes future advances in robotics, including nanobots. And the transportation industry will welcome the arrival of skycars, which are under development today. But will we travel anymore when holographic videoconferencing tools will be available? Excerpts with edits and my comments added:
A trio of disruptive technologies will converge over the next five to 15 years to overtake our incumbent systems and create new competencies that will profoundly change the way we organise our lives and the way we do business.The driving principles behind modern technology are running out of steam: it is becoming prohibitively costly to continue to shrink technology, while Moore's Law, which postulates the doubling of computer power every 18 months, is reaching its physical limits under current processes. By 2015 we will be hard pressed to use today's techniques to make devices increasingly smaller and more powerful.
-'Embedded Connectivity' a new area will draw strength from nanotechnology, sensors and wireless technology. The embedded world of the future will harness the power of billions of microprocessors on a single device, wirelessly connected to others, that can read the environment and react accordingly. Scientists portray a future in which we attach these devices to our bodies to communicate, set them loose on our streets to do menial tasks, and embed them in the commonplace objects of our lives to address our daily requirements.
The underlying foundation for this new era of embedded connectivity is nanotechnology, which is based on the manipulation of molecules less than 100 nanometres in size. At one millionth the size of a millimetre or 1/100,000th the diameter of a human hair, and roughly five times the size of an atom, a nanometre (nm) is the measuring unit for the basic building block of the future.
- Nanorobots will eventually construct materials atom by atom to create products that do anything from surveillance to in vitro navigation.
- You can see flying cars priced at less than US$100,000 using automated functionality based on NASA's EquiPT (Easy-to-use, quiet Personal Transportation) technology set.The obstacle in using has been the intensity of training required to fly them, so automation is critical. The goal is to have the vehicle controlled by a computerised brain that senses and responds to weather conditions or other crafts in the vicinity, and compensates for technical failures.
- Videoconferencing : The synergy of vastly increased bandwidth, three-dimensional video projection and interactive holography systems is expected to change the way we collectively communicate.
Business technology on the move :The top five expected changes in business technology in next five to 10 years.
- Service oriented architecture: Software will become a service. Web services applications will automatically be directed to other application services through standard interfaces, creating system-to-system communication.
- Utility computing: Enterprises will increasingly opt for a pay-as-you-go model of technology. They will pay fees on a transaction basis for functions such as storage, processing and managed security.
- Virtualisation:Advances in virtualisation and policy based management tools will help organisations manage multiple devices from a single product. These tools will be policy based so that management can be automated.
- Wireless mobility:Between 10 per cent and 15 per cent of enterprises use wireless technology today but that figure will be closer to 75 per cent in three years' time, says Gartner's Bob Hayward. Wireless devices will become cheaper, handle greater bandwidth and consume less battery power, especially because of advances in screen technology.
- Metadata tools: The average enterprise captures 30 per cent more data every year from wired and wireless activities, says Hayward. Enterprises will be leveraging this surge with business intelligence tools that probe and analyse these vast repositories to extract more information about the data. |
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