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Thursday, December 23, 2004

Next Year Tech Predictions

David Kirkpatrick of Fortune makes predictions for tech industry in 2005. David says,
Bloggers will be an integral part of the nation's discourse, open-source software will give consumers more options, and outsourcing will go mainstream. Excerpts with minor edits and my comments added:

More "bottom-up" transference of power—much more. Technology is suddenly giving people who've had no voice at all a surprisingly powerful one. Ukrainians, protesting their presidential election results, show us just how effective technology can be in organizing political movements. This power shift is also revolutionizing the software industry. Open-source software is a "bottom-up" technology that is gaining acceptance among business clients and even consumers. We now know that big companies aren't the only ones that can create top-quality software.Firefox is a case in point. Explorer's share of the global browser market is already down substantially, by some counts to below 90%. And that's in a business where it had a near-monopoly only a year or so ago.

But worse, from Microsoft's perspective, is that consumers who discover that Firefox is a great product are now more comfortable with the concept of open-source software in general. Firefox will continue to outpace expectations in 2005, gaining at least another 5 to 10 percentage points of the browser market share.

Other predictions for technology trends we'll hear about in 2005:

Sun emerges as a major x86 player. Its alliance with AMD is powerful and that will likely lead to market-share inroads for inexpensive servers.
AMD rocks. It will stay ahead of Intel on critical technologies, further reviving its reputation. This is a powerful competitive advantage for a smallish company.
Intel steadies. Just because AMD does well next year, doesn't mean Intel won't, too. Paul Otellini will take charge soon. And though Intel may not be able to make super-cool (in temperature), super-fast, multi-processor chips as elegantly as AMD can, its production capacity is much larger than AMD's—or anyone else's, for that matter.
Apple introduces iPhone. It would probably be the best one you've ever seen, with impressive integration with your Mac or PC.
Cisco thrives. It's just about the only big tech company out there that doesn't seem to face any major near-term challenges. Networks will continue to gain importance, even if corporations don't invest in other aspects of their IT infrastructure.
Carly leaves HP. The alternate prediction: HP shows steadily improving financial results.
Tech seeks sales beyond India and China. Sure those are great markets, but so are populous countries like Egypt, Mexico, Malaysia, etc. That's the next big source of tech spending.
Outsourcing won't be a dirty word. Companies will routinely think globally about every aspect of their needs, including people.
Mergers become even more common. Some candidates for takeover: Gateway and BEA Systems. Mercury Interactive is another possibility. So could any of the business intelligence software companies, such as Cognos and Business Objects. SAS, the daddy of the business intelligence software industry, remains private and might even be an acquirer.
The tech's potential to improve our lives, shall remain very strong Predictions look good and reasonable, but am surprised that David has not covered potential advances in telecom, VoIP, Digital Entertainment, Search, Web Services, Online Business, biometrics, RFID, Hosted Services & Utility Computing , Reverse Migration, Impact of falling dollar on the industry as a whole etc...

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Sadagopan's Weblog on Emerging Technologies, Trends,Thoughts, Ideas & Cyberworld
"All views expressed are my personal views are not related in any way to my employer"